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TRR 181Hello Mastodon! 👋 We’re a collaborative research center funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) <a href="https://wisskomm.social/@dfg_public" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@dfg_public</a> and focus on <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/EnergyTransfer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#EnergyTransfer</a>, <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Ocean</a>, <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Atmosphere" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Atmosphere</a> & <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a>. 🌊☀️ Curious? Watch our <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Introduction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Introduction</a> video to learn more: 🎥<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRYNtjFP9sc&list=PLPDxZS49rgbF2W78ImRq8sN28YzEKXgqi&index=13" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRYNtjFP9sc&list=PLPDxZS49rgbF2W78ImRq8sN28YzEKXgqi&index=13</a>Follow us for updates on our research!

Skeptical Science"Technical difficulties" in dealing with <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateChange</a> and how to address them dominate our highlighted research reports this week. * Glacier Geoengineering May Have Unintended Consequences for Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries* In tech we trust: A history of technophilia in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) climate mitigation expertise* Dead-end pathways: Conceptualizing, assessing, avoiding [about counterproductive "mitigation theater"]As well, a fascinating behind-the-scenes report on <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a>: * How Climate Model Developers Deal With BugsNice quote: "It’s very scientific activity because you form an idea of what’s making the model misbehave. You develop hypotheses. I think of a test and do it and that’s why the bug hunting is fun."<a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/ClimateResearch" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateResearch</a><a href="https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_34.html?utm-source=mastodon&utm-campaign=socialnetworks&utm-term=sks" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_34.html?utm-source=mastodon&utm-campaign=socialnetworks&utm-term=sks</a>

AlcorNewsLa Terre emmagasine deux fois plus de chaleur que prévu. Les modèles décrochent. On encaisse. <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-terre-retient-bien-plus-de-chaleur-que-ne-le-prevoient-les-modeles-climatiques-et-ce-nest-pas-une-bonne-nouvelle-260357" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://theconversation.com/la-terre-retient-bien-plus-de-chaleur-que-ne-le-prevoient-les-modeles-climatiques-et-ce-nest-pas-une-bonne-nouvelle-260357</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Science" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Science</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateChange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/EarthEnergyImbalance" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#EarthEnergyImbalance</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/EmergingTrend" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#EmergingTrend</a>

nextGEMS🌪️ ☀️ Storms & Radiation began with a major challenge: the energy budget in our climate models was out of balance. Has that problem been solved?✅ Yes! In recent model development cycles, researchers identified and fixed the energy leaks. However, there’s more progress to highlight:☁️ Thanks to higher-resolution models, we can now simulate <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/clouds" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#clouds</a> more realistically. This has revealed that convective cloud organization plays a significant role in the Earth’s energy budget. 🌬️ An aerosol and dust scheme has been integrated into one of the models, enabling us to study climate effects from pre-industrial times to the present. 🌧️ Studies of extreme precipitation confirm that such events increase by 7% per degree of warming, in line with theoretical predictions. 🔬 Increasing model resolution brings simulations closer to physical theory. These findings enhance our understanding of the Earth system and improve the reliability of <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a> for future planning.🎥 Watch the full video by Frida Bender on the outcomes of the Storms & Radiation group here: <a href="https://nextgems-h2020.eu/media-library/?medium_id=2027" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://nextgems-h2020.eu/media-library/?medium_id=2027</a>Don't forget to share your thoughts with us! <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/EarthSystemModelling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#EarthSystemModelling</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ScienceCommunication" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ScienceCommunication</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateScience</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/H2020" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#H2020</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/CINEA_EU" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CINEA_EU</a>

Ruth MottramWay back in 2022, as the world tried to readjust back to "normal" following COVID - I helped to co-organise a bootcamp with sponsorhop from the <a href="https://bird.makeup/users/wcrp_climate" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@wcrp_climate</a> IASC, <a href="https://beta.birdsite.live/users/esaclimate" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@esaclimate</a> and a generous dollop of help from <a href="https://fediscience.org/@PolarRES" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@PolarRES</a> and <a href="https://bird.makeup/users/dmidk" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@dmidk</a> colleagues. We gathered 10 senior scientist mentors and 22 students in an old torpedo research station (now used by Roskilde University) for 10 days. It was an extremely intense period but the 4th paper produced by this talented group has just come out. I consider facilitating <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/EarlyCareerScientists" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#EarlyCareerScientists</a> to work on important science problems an extremely rewarding part of my job, and I'm looking forward to the next one already as part of our PISCO project. In the mean time, go and read this extremely cool work, collecting together a huge number of radiosonde observations going back to the 1950s over the Arctic Ocean and using them to assess how well CMIP6 models represent lower atmosphere. <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/CMIP6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CMIP6</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Arctic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Arctic</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ArcticClimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ArcticClimate</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SeaIce" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SeaIce</a><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041412" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041412</a>

O=C=OEffective emergency management prevented larger catastrophe after climate change fueled heavy rains in Central Mississippi river valley The <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/floods" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#floods</a> inundated large rural areas including agricultural fields, especially in <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Arkansas" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Arkansas</a> which has resulted in an estimated 78 Million USD of damage due to losses in fields that were already planted. Larger losses were avoided due to the timing of the floods before other <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/crops" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#crops</a> like <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/peanuts" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#peanuts</a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/cotton" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cotton</a> were planted, and since there is still a window to replant crops like <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/corn" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#corn</a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/soybeans" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#soybeans</a>. Based on gridded data products, we find that the extreme <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/rainfall" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#rainfall</a> event over the study region is relatively rare, expected to occur in today’s <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climate</a> only once every 90-240 years across different observational and reanalysis datasets. However, in a 1.3°C cooler climate, extreme rainfall such as observed would be even rarer. The best estimates for the increase in likelihood for the 2025 event associated with this warming is between a factor 2 to 5, and the increase in intensity for an event of equivalent rarity as observed is 13-26%. To quantify the role of human-induced <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateChange</a> in this increased likelihood and intensity we also analyse climate model data over the study region for the historical period. The best estimate of the synthesised result, combining observations with climate models, is about a 40% increase in likelihood and about a 9% increase in intensity. These estimates are smaller than the observed trends due to large discrepancies between the climate model results. While some models show increases similar to or larger than the observed trends, others show weaker or even decreasing trends. In contrast, <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a> consistently project that extreme precipitation events such as the one observed in April 2025 will become more frequent and intense in the future as global temperatures rise. Under current climate policies – which will lead to warming of approximately 2.6°C by 2100 – such extremes are expected to approximately double in likelihood again, and increase in intensity by about a further 7%. As the moisture that fuelled the rainfall event was partly coming from the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/GulfOfMexico" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#GulfOfMexico</a> we also assessed the role of climate change in the sea surface temperatures. We found that these waters were heated by approximately 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) due to human-caused climate change, and such <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ocean</a> conditions are now about 14 times more likely than in a cooler pre-industrial world. This contributed to higher <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/evaporation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#evaporation</a> rates, increasing the availability of moisture in the rainfall event. The strong observed trends in precipitation extremes in this region are also found in other studies using different methods, across different regions, including the Central <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Mississippi" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Mississippi</a> river valley and are assessed as being attributable to climate change by the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/IPCC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#IPCC</a> AR6 report. In conclusion, due to (1) the observed trends that are (2) in line with IPCC assessments and other literature in the region, and (3) the clear emergence of a climate change signal with further <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/warming" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#warming</a> in all climate models as well as (4) the availability of more moisture due to higher SSTs, we state that climate change amplified the heavy rainfall leading to the floods and that the estimate from observations and models combined of a 9% increase in intensity and 40% increase in likelihood is conservative and the role of climate change could be as large as the observations alone suggest Despite being an extremely complex event, with tornadoes, flash floods, riverine floods and landslides overlapping, the US National Weather Service made a tremendous effort to provide early warnings for the floods, in some cases up to a week in advance of river crests. These early warnings allowed state and local emergency departments to prepare, inform the public, and evacuate those at highest risk. While any loss of life is devastating, the outcomes of this event point to the effectiveness of decades-long investments made in forecasting, <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EarlyWarningSystems" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#EarlyWarningSystems</a>, and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/forecast" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#forecast</a>-based action. Nearly half of NWS field offices are facing vacancy rates of 20% or more, double the short-staffing levels of a decade ago. Former NWS leaders have recently warned that layoffs could impact the ability of NWS offices to respond to extreme weather events and keep people safe.<a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/effective-emergency-management-prevented-larger-catastrophe-after-climate-change-fueled-heavy-rains-in-central-mississippi-river-valley/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/effective-emergency-management-prevented-larger-catastrophe-after-climate-change-fueled-heavy-rains-in-central-mississippi-river-valley/</a><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ExtremeWeather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ExtremeWeather</a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/WeatherAttribution" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#WeatherAttribution</a>

EPFL☁️ ❄️ EPFL atmospheric and climate scientists show that biological particles may induce rain events that could contribute to flooding and snowstorms, owing to their ability to precipitate ice formation in clouds. They call for an update of meteorological and climate models.<a href="https://social.epfl.ch/tags/ClimateScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateScience</a> <a href="https://social.epfl.ch/tags/AtmosphericScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AtmosphericScience</a> <a href="https://social.epfl.ch/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a> Read more: <a href="https://go.epfl.ch/UGG-en" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://go.epfl.ch/UGG-en</a>

O=C=ORegional climate signals pose new challenges for climate science<a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateScience</a> has correctly predicted many aspects of the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climate</a> system and its response to increased atmospheric <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CarbonDioxide" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CarbonDioxide</a> concentrations. Recently, discrepancies between the real world and our expectations of regional climate changes have emerged, as have disruptive new computational approaches.What the authors describe as the dominant paradigm or "standard approach" of climate science has been developed over the last 60 years by applying fundamental laws of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/physics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#physics</a> to the climate system under the assumption that small-scale processes are determined by statistical averages dependent on large scales (parameterization).As with the evolution of other scientific fields, discrepancies have emerged in climate science with respect to how regional <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateChange</a> is evolving. For example, the eastern Tropical <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Pacific" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Pacific</a> has cooled contrary to all model predictions. Neither was the increased frequency of blocking weather conditions over <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Greenland" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Greenland</a> in summer anticipated.In particular, discrepancies are accumulating in the tropics where changes in the large-scale tropical circulation are known to grow out of instabilities that occur at small and intermediate scales. These scale-coupling mechanisms do not operate in the current generation of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a>."The challenge for conceptual work will be to identify which physics missing from the standard approach is most important for regional changes, and how to incorporate it," says Stevens.<a href="https://phys.org/news/2025-03-regional-climate-pose-science.html" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://phys.org/news/2025-03-regional-climate-pose-science.html</a>

💧🌏 Greg CocksWarm Seawater Encroaches On Major Antarctic Ice Shelf, Raising Sea Level Concerns -- <a href="https://phys.org/news/2025-01-seawater-encroaches-major-antarctic-ice.html" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://phys.org/news/2025-01-seawater-encroaches-major-antarctic-ice.html</a> <-- shared technical article -- <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020700" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020700</a> <-- shared paper -- <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/GIS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#GIS</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatial" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#spatial</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/mapping" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#mapping</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Antarctic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Antarctic</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Antarctica" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Antarctica</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/icesheet" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#icesheet</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/warmwater" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#warmwater</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/oceancurrents" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#oceancurrents</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ocean</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/marine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#marine</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/iceshelves" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#iceshelves</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/WeddellSea" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#WeddellSea</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/FilchnerRonneIceShelf" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#FilchnerRonneIceShelf</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/basal" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#basal</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/melt" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#melt</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/melting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#melting</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/rates" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#rates</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/model" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#model</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/modeling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#modeling</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/continentalshelf" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#continentalshelf</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatiotemporal" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#spatiotemporal</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/observation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#observation</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/icecover" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#icecover</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/freshwater" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#freshwater</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/global" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#global</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/sealevel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#sealevel</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/water" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#water</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/temperature" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#temperature</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/velocity" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#velocity</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/seawater" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#seawater</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/FilchnerTrough" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#FilchnerTrough</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatialanalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#spatialanalysis</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/oceandynamics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#oceandynamics</a>

RashaKamel"Whether through agricultural practices, deforestation, or urbanization, how modern humans use land has had an unprecedented impact on the planet. But historical information on human land use is lacking, impacting the quality of the climate models used today".<a href="https://mstdn.science/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> <a href="https://mstdn.science/tags/impact" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#impact</a> <a href="https://mstdn.science/tags/landuse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#landuse</a> <a href="https://phys.org/news/2025-02-impacts-human-south-asia.html" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://phys.org/news/2025-02-impacts-human-south-asia.html</a>

SLe<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF004561" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF004561</a> Looking at the data especially from the last 2 years regarding the growth of global temperatures, CO2 and sea levels, to claim that rude and oversimplified models can somehow represent the progression of climate events from now to 300 yrs is in itself something contrary to any scientific method. Which is the main purpose of the vast majority of currently research ? <a href="https://mastodon.uno/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> <a href="https://mastodon.uno/tags/scientificmetod" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#scientificmetod</a>

Ruth MottramSee also: developing + running <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a> From: <a href="https://mastodon.gamedev.place/@georgebsocial" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@georgebsocial</a> <a href="https://mastodon.gamedev.place/@georgebsocial/113806193743006350" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://mastodon.gamedev.place/@georgebsocial/113806193743006350</a>

Ruth MottramAfter diving into this field for the last year, I very much agree with this bit: "most of the near-term results using ML will be in areas where the ML allows us to tackle big data type problems more efficiently than we could do before. This will lead to more skillful models, and perhaps better predictions, and allow us to increase resolution and detail faster than expected. Real progress will not be as fast as some of the more breathless commentaries have suggested, but progress will be real."<a href="https://fediscience.org/@Ruth_Mottram/113775294023850288" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://fediscience.org/@Ruth_Mottram/113775294023850288</a> Ruth_Mottram - One of few <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateBlogs" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateBlogs</a> to still reliably get good comments, likely because of insightful content : @RealClimate has a very good piece by @climateofgavin on <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> in <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> with which I concur completely<a href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/12/ai-caramba/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/12/ai-caramba/</a>

Ruth Mottram One of few <a href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23ClimateBlogs" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateBlogs</a> to still reliably get good comments, likely because of insightful content : <a class="mention" href="https://bsky.brid.gy/ap/did:plc:n3k7hkydcbm64tcvfcso3yt6" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@realclimate.org</a> has a very good piece by <a class="mention" href="https://bsky.app/profile/climateofgavin.bsky.social" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@climateofgavin.bsky.social</a> on <a href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23AI" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> in <a href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23climatemodels" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> with which I concur completely <a href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/12/ai-caramba/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/12/ai-caramba/</a>

Owlet of MinervaIf you've seen the hype about recent accomplishments of "AI" weather forecasting, and you're a <a href="https://toot.si/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climate</a> nerd, but not nerdy enough to have an informed opinion on what these advances in machine learning imply for modeling the climate of our rapidly warming planet, you may find this post clarifying. I did.Gavin Schmidt, "¡AI Caramba!", RealClimate, 28 December 2024 <a href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/12/ai-caramba/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/12/ai-caramba/</a><a href="https://toot.si/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> <a href="https://toot.si/tags/ML" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ML</a> <a href="https://toot.si/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a>

Larry NeufeldHow climate models could be underestimating drought <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Drought" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Drought</a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateChange</a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateCrisis</a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/globalwarming" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#globalwarming</a> <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2024/12/how-climate-models-could-be-underestimating-drought/?utm_source=SocialShare&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=Twitter&utm_term" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://thebulletin.org/2024/12/how-climate-models-could-be-underestimating-drought/?utm_source=SocialShare&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=Twitter&utm_term</a>

Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬Three leading <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climate</a> scientists combined insights from 10 global <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> and with <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a>, conclude regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously estimated. Study projects most land regions as defined <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/IPCC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#IPCC</a> will surpass critical 1.5°C threshold by #2040. Similarly, several regions are on track to exceed the 3.0°C threshold by #2060-sooner than anticipated in earlier studies." <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/climatecrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatecrisis</a>

Doug BostromSome smart systems thinking.In order to cherrypick and exploit this research for propaganda purposes, opponents of <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/EnergyModernization" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#EnergyModernization</a> will have to acknowledge high skill on the part of <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateModels</a>. Nice dilemma, although logical integrity has never been a strength in the extreme greed demographic. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109416?af=R" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109416?af=R</a>

rexi<a href="https://phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-world-temperatures-3c-faster.html" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-world-temperatures-3c-faster.html</a>(wishing this were hallucination..)Key findingsUsing <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a>-based <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/transferlearning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#transferlearning</a>, the researchers analyzed data from 10 different <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a> to predict temperature increases and found: ‣ 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.‣ 31 of these 34 regions are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040. ‣ 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.Barnes*, Diffenbaugh and Seneviratne DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

Aurélien🔻Many discussions, reflexions, policies about climate change concern themselves with the predictions average, or central scenarios, somewhat of necessity. But there are still many uncertainties about the future evolution.The article below describes one reason why that change could be coming faster than expected. It’s not definitive at all, just something to keep in mind: <a href="https://nachrichten.idw-online.de/2024/12/05/rapid-surge-in-global-warming-mainly-due-to-reduced-planetary-albedo" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://nachrichten.idw-online.de/2024/12/05/rapid-surge-in-global-warming-mainly-due-to-reduced-planetary-albedo</a><a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/temperatureanomaly" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#temperatureanomaly</a> <a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/climategoals" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climategoals</a> <a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/CarbonBudget" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CarbonBudget</a> <a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/climatemodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#climatemodels</a>

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