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Regional climate signals pose new challenges for climate science

#ClimateScience has correctly predicted many aspects of the #climate system and its response to increased atmospheric #CarbonDioxide concentrations. Recently, discrepancies between the real world and our expectations of regional climate changes have emerged, as have disruptive new computational approaches.

What the authors describe as the dominant paradigm or "standard approach" of climate science has been developed over the last 60 years by applying fundamental laws of #physics to the climate system under the assumption that small-scale processes are determined by statistical averages dependent on large scales (parameterization).

As with the evolution of other scientific fields, discrepancies have emerged in climate science with respect to how regional #ClimateChange is evolving. For example, the eastern Tropical #Pacific has cooled contrary to all model predictions. Neither was the increased frequency of blocking weather conditions over #Greenland in summer anticipated.

In particular, discrepancies are accumulating in the tropics where changes in the large-scale tropical circulation are known to grow out of instabilities that occur at small and intermediate scales. These scale-coupling mechanisms do not operate in the current generation of #ClimateModels.

"The challenge for conceptual work will be to identify which physics missing from the standard approach is most important for regional changes, and how to incorporate it," says Stevens.

phys.org/news/2025-03-regional

Phys.org · Regional climate signals pose new challenges for climate scienceBy Denise Müller-Dum