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#ParisAgreement

10 posts10 participants0 posts today

Remaining CO2 budget for 1.5 and well below 2C updated by Kevin Anderson for January 2025 , after Lamboll et al 2023.
nature.com/articles/s41558-023

The team of The God Of Budgets😁 , Joeri Rogelj, of which Robin Lamboll is a member, has a new paper out on budgets that includes the various uncertainties by aerosol masking – and which describe the 196 national budgets according to 5 or 6 different equity considerations, for 1.5, 1.7 and 2C warming.
nature.com/articles/s41467-025 , Li et al 2025

Quite complex. Have been playing with the supplementary data for national budgets for a week or so now, and still can't make much sense of the values 😁

One equity consideration is left out which I very much liked in Romanovskaya 2019 tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10
She considered nations according to their heating and cooling requirements and also regarding their population density. So a densely populated Germany for example gets a lower mobility budget for personal and goods transport than Tanzania, but a far higher heating budget.

I'm trying to apply her logic to the new godly message by Li, Rogelj et al – just to see how this changes things.

Needless to say: Germany is far outside her budget already in either case. There might be some left for 2C, but I doubt it.

Another thing around budgets that always ails me:
nowadays, we count land use change and forestry LUCF emissions. And since mostly nations from the Global South are still felling forests, this gets deducted from their fair budget.

So far so good. But.
Spain for example built its wealth by felling all the oak forest by 1600 AD. For ship building and metallurgy.
The whole land was covered by oak trees from the Pyrenees down to Gibraltar in 100 AD or something, a roman explorer and philosopher wrote back then, forgot his name now.
So why should these emissions not count against Spain's remaining budget? South America is speaking Spanish for a reason. Without those oak trees, they'd speak, dunno, maybe English? Or Portuguese or Italian?
Anyway, the point is that they felled them, did not plant new ones, and took the riches from South America to build their nation's wealth that still today is the foundation of their well-being.
What do you think? Is it fair to deduct emissions from felling forests from national budgets – while omitting nations like Spain and Great Britain?

#equity #ParisAgreement #CO2budget

5/ 🚫💸abandonment of false solutions, incl. through refusal to adopt loose carbon trading rules undermining the integrity #ParisAgreement integrity & posing new #HumanRights threats, esp. for Indigenous Peoples
🔖 See this specific @cielorg.bsky.social thread for more details: bsky.app/profile/ciel...

Only One Big Economy Is Aiming for #ParisAgreement's 1.5C Goal
UK is outlier with an increasingly ambitious #climate plan after more than 170 countries miss #UN deadline.
Seven of 10 world's largest economies missed deadline on Monday to submit updated #emissions-cutting plans to United Nations -- and only one, the UK, outlined a strategy for the next decade that keeps pace with expectations staked out under the Paris Agreement.
financialpost.com/pmn/business
archive.ph/D2GTm
#climatechange

Financial Post · Only One Big Economy Is Aiming for Paris Agreement's 1.5C GoalBy Bloomberg News

"Earth is crossing the threshold of 1.5°C of global warming, according to two major global studies which together suggest the planet’s climate has likely entered a frightening new phase.

Under the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, humanity is seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep planetary heating to no more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. In 2024, temperatures on Earth surpassed that limit.

This was not enough to declare the Paris threshold had been crossed, because the temperature goals under the agreement are measured over several decades, rather than short excursions over the 1.5°C mark.

But the two papers just released use a different measure. Both examined historical climate data to determine whether very hot years in the recent past were a sign that a future, long-term warming threshold would be breached.

The answer, alarmingly, was yes. The researchers say the record-hot 2024 indicates Earth is passing the 1.5°C limit, beyond which scientists predict catastrophic harm to the natural systems that support life on Earth."

theconversation.com/earth-is-a

The ConversationEarth is already shooting through the 1.5°C global warming limit, two major studies show
More from The Conversation AU + NZ

Africa: Shaping Conditions for Fair, Equitable and Enduring Climate Finance: [IPS] The global commitment to fair climate finance is at a crossroads. COP29 concluded with a disappointing New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), leaving developing nations at risk of being left behind. With the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and slashing development aid, prospects for… newsfeed.facilit8.network/THwg #ClimateFinance #COP29 #ParisAgreement #SustainableDevelopment #EquityInFinance