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Atlas has 2.7/3 stars on FiveThirtyEight and is a "select pollster" on NYTimes.

And they pretend Trump will win by claiming the Black vote in Pennsylvania will be 5.2% of the electorate, rather than the 11% it was in 2020 (per CNN exit polling).

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Atlas has 2.7/3 stars on FiveThirtyEight and is a "select pollster" on NYTimes.

And they pretend Trump will win by claiming the Black vote in Pennsylvania will be 5.2% of the electorate, rather than the 11% it was in 2020 (per CNN exit polling).

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I'm not an immigration law expert, but, in general, obtaining naturalization through fraud or misrepresentation can result in deportation of naturalized citizens. It's hard to see how Musk became naturalized without lying about this somewhere in the process.

https://www. washingtonpost.com/business/20 24/10/26/elon-musk-immigration-status/

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I'm not an immigration law expert, but, in general, obtaining naturalization through fraud or misrepresentation can result in deportation of naturalized citizens. It's hard to see how Musk became naturalized without lying about this somewhere in the process.

https://www. washingtonpost.com/business/20 24/10/26/elon-musk-immigration-status/

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Ira Kurzban, an immigration law expert and the author of a legal sourcebook used widely by attorneys and judges, agreed.

Kurzban said the brothers’ subsequent applications for work visas and to become U.S. permanent residents and naturalized citizens would have asked whether they worked in the United States without authorization. “If you tell them you worked illegally in the U.S., it’s highly unlikely you’d get approved,” Kurzban said.

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I still think Harris wins this but at some point we should discuss how two months of outreach to Republicans produced no benefit whatsoever. All it did was stop her ascent and cap her support at 49%.

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I still think Harris wins this but at some point we should discuss how two months of outreach to Republicans produced no benefit whatsoever. All it did was stop her ascent and cap her support at 49%.

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Graph of POTUS polling averages with two headlines overlaid, Harris saying she'd appoint a Republican to her Cabinet (8/29) and tapping Cheney for a tour (10/22). From 8/29, polling went from 49 Harris 46 Trump to 49 Harris 48 Trump.

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LMAO if Beaver County, PA, is a "bellwether" then Harris has already won Pennsylvania and the whole election by a landslide.

Trump won it +18 in 2020, 54,759 votes Trump, 38,122 Biden. Biden won PA with a margin of +80,555 votes.

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LMAO if Beaver County, PA, is a "bellwether" then Harris has already won Pennsylvania and the whole election by a landslide.

Trump won it +18 in 2020, 54,759 votes Trump, 38,122 Biden. Biden won PA with a margin of +80,555 votes.

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In a Bellwether Pennsylvania County, a Modest Loss Could Be a Win for Harris

In white, working-class places, Kamala Harris’s goal is simply to lose by less. Thirty interviews in Beaver County, Pa., offered signs that she was holding the line.

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A month ago, NYT/Siena had Trump +2 nationally. I complained sample sizes were too small for several groups, and that younger voters are more than 12% of electorate in Presidential elections.

Today their sample sizes are fine and they bumped young voters to 13%, so Harris is +3.
https://www. nytimes.com/interactive/2024/1 0/08/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html

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A month ago, NYT/Siena had Trump +2 nationally. I complained sample sizes were too small for several groups, and that younger voters are more than 12% of electorate in Presidential elections.

Today their sample sizes are fine and they bumped young voters to 13%, so Harris is +3.
https://www. nytimes.com/interactive/2024/1 0/08/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html

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Chart comparing "composition of the sample" for September and October polls

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nice to see NYTimes drop the sanewashing and instead compile examples of just how bizarre his speech is now, and how little he campaigns (less than a quarter as many rallies as 2016)

gift link so you can send this to the fascist weirdos in your life
https://www. nytimes.com/2024/10/06/us/poli tics/trump-speeches-age-cognitive-decline.html?unlocked_article_code=1.QE4.JJYW.GTjJjaexBe2T&smid=url-share

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nice to see NYTimes drop the sanewashing and instead compile examples of just how bizarre his speech is now, and how little he campaigns (less than a quarter as many rallies as 2016)

gift link so you can send this to the fascist weirdos in your life
https://www. nytimes.com/2024/10/06/us/poli tics/trump-speeches-age-cognitive-decline.html?unlocked_article_code=1.QE4.JJYW.GTjJjaexBe2T&smid=url-share

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Malcolm Gladwell thinks bank heists are contagious which would be funny but it seems uhhh he's also suggesting minorities shouldn't exceed a third of the population

https://www. nytimes.com/2024/09/26/busines s/malcolm-gladwell-revenge-of-the-tipping-point.html

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Malcolm Gladwell thinks bank heists are contagious which would be funny but it seems uhhh he's also suggesting minorities shouldn't exceed a third of the population

https://www. nytimes.com/2024/09/26/busines s/malcolm-gladwell-revenge-of-the-tipping-point.html

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Mr. Gladwell argues that epidemics — say, a surge of bank heists — are shaped by what he calls “overstory,” which is the set of rules or norms that structure any given community. (A successful bank robber in Los Angeles, for example, is apt to inspire more.) He explores the role of “superspreaders,” people best positioned to ignite a behavior or an idea. And he examines how communities are shaped by their population proportions; group dynamics tend to stay stable when minority perspectives make up roughly one-third of the overall size, what he calls “the law of the magic third.”

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Among the many absurdities here is the question of why our legal system allows Walmart to sic the cops on her in the first place and does not punish Walmart for misuse of that process. It's an alleged underpayment of $67. Send a dunning letter and go to small claims court.
https://www. independent.co.uk/life-style/w almart-checkout-asparagus-ham-olympian-meaggan-pettipiece-b2618487.html

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Among the many absurdities here is the question of why our legal system allows Walmart to sic the cops on her in the first place and does not punish Walmart for misuse of that process. It's an alleged underpayment of $67. Send a dunning letter and go to small claims court.
https://www. independent.co.uk/life-style/w almart-checkout-asparagus-ham-olympian-meaggan-pettipiece-b2618487.html

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It's not just that the now-President of the Heritage Foundation killed his neighbor's dog with a shovel—he also had to brag to his liberal academic colleagues about it. The cruelty is necessary, but not sufficient, they need the lurid rush of showing it to others.
https://www. theguardian.com/us-news/2024/s ep/24/project-2025-kevin-roberts-killed-dog

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It's not just that the now-President of the Heritage Foundation killed his neighbor's dog with a shovel—he also had to brag to his liberal academic colleagues about it. The cruelty is necessary, but not sufficient, they need the lurid rush of showing it to others.
https://www. theguardian.com/us-news/2024/s ep/24/project-2025-kevin-roberts-killed-dog

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To take NYT/Siena at face value, you have to believe they had difficulty finding people over 65 willing to answer the phone and do a political poll, so had to skew those up 23% to 29%, yet found too many 18-29 people, so had to skew those down 16% to 12%.

Sorry, but no.

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To take NYT/Siena at face value, you have to believe they had difficulty finding people over 65 willing to answer the phone and do a political poll, so had to skew those up 23% to 29%, yet found too many 18-29 people, so had to skew those down 16% to 12%.

Sorry, but no.

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NYT/Siena is the GOAT of skewed polls. They undersample GOP demos to ensure their sample is extra pro-MAGA, then overweigh that unrepresentative sample.

Here's their sample % versus likely voter % weighing:

Republican
29% 🔼 34%

Age 65+
23% 🔼 29%

Edu no college
16% 🔼 27%

White
62% 🔼 66%

https://www. nytimes.com/interactive/2024/0 9/08/us/politics/times-siena-poll-toplines.html

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NYT/Siena is the GOAT of skewed polls. They undersample GOP demos to ensure their sample is extra pro-MAGA, then overweigh that unrepresentative sample.

Here's their sample % versus likely voter % weighing:

Republican
29% 🔼 34%

Age 65+
23% 🔼 29%

Edu no college
16% 🔼 27%

White
62% 🔼 66%

https://www. nytimes.com/interactive/2024/0 9/08/us/politics/times-siena-poll-toplines.html

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Hey! Remember when Trump and Republicans spent a week pretending to care about tipped workers?

Big surprise, they don't really care, and here's a 5th Circuit case blowing up a Biden admin regulation that protected tipped workers.
https://www. notus.org/courts/biden-labor-l egacy-jeopardy-supreme-court

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Hey! Remember when Trump and Republicans spent a week pretending to care about tipped workers?

Big surprise, they don't really care, and here's a 5th Circuit case blowing up a Biden admin regulation that protected tipped workers.
https://www. notus.org/courts/biden-labor-l egacy-jeopardy-supreme-court

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It's their own fault. "We're a non-profit, and all the evidence shows we strengthen the market for creators" is a loser's argument. They should go with, "we're part of a Wall Street & Silicon Valley AI scam that is obliterating creators." Then courts will call it "fair use." https://blog.archive.org/2024/09/04/in ternet-archive-responds-to-appellate-opinion/

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It's their own fault. "We're a non-profit, and all the evidence shows we strengthen the market for creators" is a loser's argument. They should go with, "we're part of a Wall Street & Silicon Valley AI scam that is obliterating creators." Then courts will call it "fair use." https://blog.archive.org/2024/09/04/in ternet-archive-responds-to-appellate-opinion/

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The Mars family are all tax cheats who have lobbied hard to make America worse by ensuring the idle inherited rich like themselves never pay taxes. Godspeed, Lina.

(gift link)

https://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/20 24-08-29/mars-36-billion-deal-faces-tough-review-by-lina-khan-s-ftc?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcyNDkzODYzNywiZXhwIjoxNzI1NTQzNDM3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTSUw5S09UMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4NzU5NDI1Q0VFODg0NjVCOUVDOUY4Nzg4MkRCMDlFNSJ9.CbZlFZuzJzdbYntkzyS_hi-2BxxH0UsxfPEA0zZLjr4

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The Mars family are all tax cheats who have lobbied hard to make America worse by ensuring the idle inherited rich like themselves never pay taxes. Godspeed, Lina.

(gift link)

https://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/20 24-08-29/mars-36-billion-deal-faces-tough-review-by-lina-khan-s-ftc?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcyNDkzODYzNywiZXhwIjoxNzI1NTQzNDM3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTSUw5S09UMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4NzU5NDI1Q0VFODg0NjVCOUVDOUY4Nzg4MkRCMDlFNSJ9.CbZlFZuzJzdbYntkzyS_hi-2BxxH0UsxfPEA0zZLjr4

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why would anyone do business with this nasty goofball? https://apnews.com/article/x-sues-adve rtisers-unilever-cvs-mars-orsted-673d1ae88e9fb0ca5b170d238739453e

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why would anyone do business with this nasty goofball? https://apnews.com/article/x-sues-adve rtisers-unilever-cvs-mars-orsted-673d1ae88e9fb0ca5b170d238739453e

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"We're not weirdos," say the members of a fascist pedophilia cult led by Jeffrey Epstein's best friend of 15 years who is running for President on a platform of having the government inspect teenage girls' genitals and monitor their periods.

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"We're not weirdos," say the members of a fascist pedophilia cult led by Jeffrey Epstein's best friend of 15 years who is running for President on a platform of having the government inspect teenage girls' genitals and monitor their periods.

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If you're feeling doom and gloom about Biden withdrawing, go look at the feeds of your horrible MAGA family members. They are despondent and have no idea what to do. What, talk about cognitive decline? Abortion? Windmill cancer? Electric sharks?

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If you're feeling doom and gloom about Biden withdrawing, go look at the feeds of your horrible MAGA family members. They are despondent and have no idea what to do. What, talk about cognitive decline? Abortion? Windmill cancer? Electric sharks?

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Not sure I've seen a more damning quote about AI's prospects than this one.

The "killer app" he's talking about is Tesla's robotaxi, which is little more than a continuation of nearly ten years of Musk claiming full self-driving is just around the corner.

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Not sure I've seen a more damning quote about AI's prospects than this one.

The "killer app" he's talking about is Tesla's robotaxi, which is little more than a continuation of nearly ten years of Musk claiming full self-driving is just around the corner.

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“Investors have been looking for that one breakthrough, real-world application of AI,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research. “And now we have someone who has been working on AI for years saying ‘hey, I have got that killer application.’”

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It was buried by other news, but, as a reminder, at the debate Trump gave a complete bullshit answer about Ukraine, literally copying Nixon's fake "secret plan" to end the Vietnam War. https://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/20 24-07-03/zelenskiy-challenges-trump-to-reveal-plans-for-quick-end-to-war?srnd=homepage-americas

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It was buried by other news, but, as a reminder, at the debate Trump gave a complete bullshit answer about Ukraine, literally copying Nixon's fake "secret plan" to end the Vietnam War. https://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/20 24-07-03/zelenskiy-challenges-trump-to-reveal-plans-for-quick-end-to-war?srnd=homepage-americas

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Pretty cool how we have a robust right to jury trial if you're some lawbreaking hedge fund or corporation trying to delay agency action, but if you try to sue one of them, there's an endless gantlet of federal statutes and procedural rules designed to throw your case out before you get to a jury.
https://apnews.com/article/supreme-cou rt-regulatory-agencies-sec-36f16444b1d4fc52985fdb68896362bb

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Pretty cool how we have a robust right to jury trial if you're some lawbreaking hedge fund or corporation trying to delay agency action, but if you try to sue one of them, there's an endless gantlet of federal statutes and procedural rules designed to throw your case out before you get to a jury.
https://apnews.com/article/supreme-cou rt-regulatory-agencies-sec-36f16444b1d4fc52985fdb68896362bb