The XBB.1.5 "updated" Covid vaccine booster provided ~54% increased protection *against symptomatic infections* (including vs. JN.1 variant) compared with not getting it.
@erictopol How long does the vaccine last, and will there be an updated version for the spring?
Short answer is "Studies suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are most effective during the first three months after vaccination”
Longer answer is more complicated. A meta-analysis found that protection was about 30% 9 months after a booster:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2804451
@peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol
EXACTLY, yet CDC has decided to treat like the flu, so vax is suggested once a year. But -- "People who are up to date have lower risk of severe illness" -- UP TO DATE... get that??? There IS NO ACTUAL DEFINITION OF "up to date" The CDC site is a f'g joke of circular link to link of NO ACTUAL INFORMATION.
@peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol
I wonder is there any cumulative effect from multiple boosters.
@stargazersmith @c_merriweather @erictopol Me too! It’s remarkable how hard it is to find reliable information
@peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol
This being so, what is the optimal interval for the next #booster shot, if you had all up to last year if you are not in a particularly vulnerable group, still 6 months?
@HistoPol @peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol #COVID You asked what the optimal time is for the next booster?
Based on the 54% effectiveness reported for JN.1 at 2 months, a shot a month should about do it, provided FDA and CDC would allow it.
The current vaccine is no longer effective for personal protection, other than against severe disease and death. And that won't last 6 months either. More likely 3.
It is essential to take other measures to protect yourself ( masks and isolation).
@samohTmaS
"Based on the 54% effectiveness reported for JN.1 at 2 months, a shot a month should about do it, provided FDA and CDC would allow it. "
Apart from a probably increasing vaccination risk, would there even be a new vaccine (variant) every month?
If your probability holds true, 54% at 2 months, 30% after 9 months is astonishingly good still.
@HistoPol @peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol
Variants are constantly developing. And hybrids. That is what this virus does - mutate and hybridize. To be far enough different to be a problem takes many months - usually. No guarantees.
It would be ridiculous to do monthly vaccination. But that is just a measure about how inadequate this vaccine is now - six months since it was released.
We need new vaccines more frequently to keep up with the virus. And to be over 90% effective.
54% is not good. These vaccines last only about 4 months when they start at 94% effective. They then fall to 70% effective by about 4 months and within another month they are essentially worthless. This vaccine at two months is at 54%. It is rapidly losing effectiveness. And for such an incredibly dangerous BSL3 vector this is bad.
It is still better than nothing. but it cannot be relied upon for protection alone. Mask up and isolate.
@erictopol
We got our boosters in early November - still got the older B.A 4-5 booster.
Now we have to wait until early May to get the XBB 1.5 booster, while JN.1 is the main risk now.
How good is the B.A 4-5 against JN.1 ?