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Jussi T Eronen

This is not really good news. The point that AMOC collapse is demonstrated in complex models (CESM1) means that it looks to be real. AND the early warning indicators point towards us reaching it sometime in the future (although no-one knows exactly when), is worrisome.

The Youtube link that is in the screen capture here (Dijkstra's presentation):
youtube.com/watch?v=oDZpIDID15

@Jussi_T_Eronen this looks like it’s based on the same 2021 model that made the rounds but with more inputs into the model (I haven’t finished watching, though 😅).

I found this to be a sobering analysis of that model: sciencenorway.no/climate-globa.

TL;DR it’s hard to predict an actual collapse and the air temperature will be so much warmer by 2100 anyway that a weakened AMOC will likely provide relief.

ScienceNorway · Researchers and the media need to stop crying ‘wolf’ about the Gulf StreamBy Bård Amundsen

@kumarvibe I don't think it is solely that. The new stuff here is the CESM model run (first complex atmosphere-ocean dynamic model run that has demonstrated collapse of AMOC). The previous ones from the summer we not based on that, but simpler models or different variation of the early warning signal system. So there is new stuff, some which has not been yet published