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Scientists developed the first climate models in the late 1960s (for which the Nobel Prize in physics was recently awarded!).

How have these models held up against what happened in the real world after they were published? Surprisingly well, it turns out:

CarolynFus

@hausfath

Great, so when do you project that it will stop getting hotter? ;)

@CarolynFus @hausfath When we stop being idiots and significantly cut emissions. And even then there will be a lag.

@ariaflame @CarolynFus @hausfath Yeah, it will stop getting hotter 40–100 years after we get our shit together.

@clacke @hausfath @CarolynFus But if we get our shit together it will be getting hotter less fast.

@ariaflame @CarolynFus @hausfath We are in agreement!

If we cut to zero right now, the getting-worse will slow down year by year. After several decades it will stop getting worse. Then it can start getting better.

In no way did I mean we should not get our shit together. If we don't, it won't stop at all. The lag means the urgency is even greater.

@ariaflame Yeah, maybe not just a lag. That's the thing about "tipping points". When we reach them, there's no stopping or reversing it back. 🤷

@CarolynFus @hausfath