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#thresholds

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Giuseppe Michieli

Optimal #thresholds and key #parameters for predicting #influenza A virus #transmission events in #ferrets, npj Viruses: nature.com/articles/s44298-024

Identification that intermediate transmission outcomes should be contextualized relative to the transmission mode assessed provides needed refinement towards improving interpretation of ferret transmission studies in the context of pandemic risk assessment.

NatureOptimal thresholds and key parameters for predicting influenza A virus transmission events in ferrets - npj VirusesAlthough assessments of influenza A virus transmissibility in the ferret model play a critical role in pandemic risk evaluations, few studies have investigated which virological data collected from virus-inoculated animals are most predictive of subsequent virus transmission to naïve contacts. We compiled viral titer data from >475 ferrets inoculated with 97 contemporary IAV (including high- and low-pathogenicity avian, swine-origin, and human viruses of multiple HA subtypes) that served as donors for assessments of virus transmission in the presence of direct contact (DCT) or via respiratory droplets (RDT). A diversity of molecular determinants, clinical parameters, and infectious titer measurements and derived quantities were examined to identify which metrics were most statistically supported with transmission outcome. Higher viral loads in nasal wash (NW) specimens were strongly associated with higher transmission frequencies in DCT, but not RDT models. However, viruses that reached peak titers in NW specimens early (day 1 p.i.) were strongly associated with higher transmission in both models. Interestingly, viruses with ‘intermediate’ transmission outcomes (33–66%) had NW titers and derived quantities more similar to non-transmissible viruses (<33%) in a DCT setting, but with efficiently transmissible viruses (>67%) in a RDT setting. Machine learning was employed to further assess the predictive role of summary measures and varied interpretation of intermediate transmission outcomes in both DCT and RDT models, with models employing these different thresholds yielding high performance metrics against both internal and external datasets. Collectively, these findings suggest that higher viral load in inoculated animals can be predictive of DCT outcomes, whereas the timing of when peak titers are detected in inoculated animals can inform RDT outcomes. Identification that intermediate transmission outcomes should be contextualized relative to the transmission mode assessed provides needed refinement towards improving interpretation of ferret transmission studies in the context of pandemic risk assessment.
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Public
cath

And behold some #doors / #thresholds / #portals: clockwise from left: house on the steps down to Bingin beach; cottage accommodation (one quarter of the cost of the ugly flat I rent in Darwin!) on Nusa Penida; gorgeous homestay accommodation in Uluwatu; and some kind of yoga studio (?) next to a cafe in Uluwatu

Timber saloon shutters over a timber doorway set into a stone wall behind a low blue-painted fence and gate. Hanging either side of the entry are some strung spherical shapes. Also visible is a tall thin cactus and some other shrubbery
I’m the darker foreground are some feet on a bed. Beyond is an open double door looking out onto a garden and swimming pool
Beyond some live bamboo is a curvy open-sided bamboo structure. The roof has metal (?) shingle tiles and looks like overlapping petals. The floor is round, timber, and the space within beckons
Entry to a traditional but modified Balinese house compound, with stone walls and statues, a timber threshold and a lush garden several buildings and a swimming pool inside
Public
Andy Scollick

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

"Our predictions also suggest that even with substantial greenhouse gas mitigation, there is still a possibility of failing to hold global warming below the 2°C threshold."

Noah Diffenbaugh and Elizabeth Barnes (PNAS) #climate #emissions #GlobalWarming #GlobalHeating #ClimateChange #thresholds #ParisAgreement #COP28 #COP28UAE pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2207

Public
Andy Scollick

Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere #thresholds

Uta Klönne et al (Dec 2022) Nature Climate Change

Considering #cryosphere and warming uncertainties together implies drastically increased risk of threshold crossing in the cryosphere, even under lower-emission pathways, and underscores the need to halve #emissions by 2030 in line with the 1.5°C limit of the #ParisAgreement. #climate #ClimateChange #TippingPoints #EarthSystem climateanalytics.org/publicati

climateanalytics.orgOnly halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds
Public
Keen Rivers

#Trickster Makes This World by Lewis Hyde was an accidental find- lucky me! With powerful insights into the #traps of #culture, #thresholds between #worlds, and the #crossroads of life; this #book is a guide for cultural #change #agents and misfits alike. Full of examples in modern art, literature and politics, this book is also a romp through the world of Trickster characters like #Coyote, #Raven, #Eshu and #Hermes. This book will give you new tools to #think with. #DTN

Public
Demographic Research

In our latest publication, Wiebke Schulz is looking at the extent to which children experience #educational disadvantages when their parents separate and finds that "children from lower educational #backgrounds face higher risks of educational failure than children from higher educational backgrounds, especially at lower educational #thresholds". Read the full paper here 👉 demographic-research.org/volum

Public
Leonardo Saravia

"we summarize 36 meta-analyses measuring more than 4,600 global change impacts on natural communities. We find that #thresholds were rarely #detectable. Instead, #ecological #responses were characterized mostly by progressively increasing magnitude and variance when pressure increased. Thus, environmental concerns might appear overstated if thresholds are taken for the general case but critical transitions associated with transgressing thresholds are not observed"

nature.com/articles/s41559-020

NatureThresholds for ecological responses to global change do not emerge from empirical data - Nature Ecology & EvolutionThe utility of the threshold paradigm, such that relatively small perturbations drive abrupt ecosystem changes, is challenged by a synthesis of 36 meta-analyses, which detected few signatures of thresholds from over 4,600 global change impacts on natural ecological communities.
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