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#electoralcalculus

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Donald Roy<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://zirk.us/@ChrisMayLA6" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>ChrisMayLA6</span></a></span></p><p>Before the current travails of <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/reformuk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>reformuk</span></a> could be taken into account <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/electoralcalculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>electoralcalculus</span></a> gave <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>labour</span></a> a 54% chance of holding the seat. This must now have improved somewhat. However it is never wise to underestimate <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>labour</span></a> 's capacity for gratuitous self-harm - the selections of candidates for the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/hartlepool" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>hartlepool</span></a> and <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/rochdale" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>rochdale</span></a> byelections being cases in point! It has been reported already that <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/jonathanashworth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>jonathanashworth</span></a> may be interested in standing .</p>
Donald Roy<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://zirk.us/@ChrisMayLA6" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>ChrisMayLA6</span></a></span> <br>I agree. The poll cited is by <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/focaldata" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>focaldata</span></a> - who have an excellent record due not least to <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/jameskanagasooriam" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>jameskanagasooriam</span></a> (whose work in <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/scotland" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>scotland</span></a> rescued <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/theresamay" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>theresamay</span></a> in <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ukgeneralelection2017" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ukgeneralelection2017</span></a> ). <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/electoralcalculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>electoralcalculus</span></a> has produced very similar results to it. Using their open access model suggests that a return of just 3% of voters back to <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>labour</span></a> from <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/reformUK" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>reformUK</span></a> would give <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/La%C9%93our" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Laɓour</span></a> a substantial majority. The 3% group is not anti-immigration but expects actual delivery from the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>labour</span></a> government.</p>
Donald Roy<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mstdn.social/@huxley" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>huxley</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://zirk.us/@ChrisMayLA6" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>ChrisMayLA6</span></a></span></p><p>The latest projections from <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/electoralcalculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>electoralcalculus</span></a> reduce the number of <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>labour</span></a> seats by roughly sixty as against the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/generalelection" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>generalelection</span></a> total. The <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/conservatives" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>conservatives</span></a> are the main beneficiaries - nearly fifty up, followed by 'other' - effectively left independents - and then <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Reformuk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Reformuk</span></a> with five or six apiece and the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/snp" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>snp</span></a> with one. So perhaps a good time for <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/morganmcsweeney" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>morganmcsweeney</span></a> to move sideways! And there were reports of an event - now cancelled - with 'cash for access' for business!</p>
Donald RoyIntroducing myself -potentially boring
nicholas_saunders<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@Savvyhomestead" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>Savvyhomestead</span></a></span> not all votes are equal. That's just how the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/electoralcollege" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>electoralcollege</span></a> and its <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/electoralcalculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>electoralcalculus</span></a> works.</p>
@ NovaNaturalist🇨🇦🇩🇰🇬🇱🇵🇦🇲🇽🇱🇸🇳🇫🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈 #FBPE<p>Latest election forecast by <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ElectoralCalculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ElectoralCalculus</span></a>'s MRP method is out.</p><p>With a Labour majority of 348 (twice Tony Blair's) I'm hoping we will see the LibDems taking on the role of His Majesty's Opposition.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/nevervoteconservative" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>nevervoteconservative</span></a></p>
AutisticMumTo3<p>Tactical voting could spell the Tories’ worst election in 100 years, shock poll shows | The Independent<br> <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tactical-voting-general-election-tory-defeat-sunak-starmer-b2407871.html" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli</span><span class="invisible">tics/tactical-voting-general-election-tory-defeat-sunak-starmer-b2407871.html</span></a></p><p><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/TacticalVoting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>TacticalVoting</span></a> <br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/Tories" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Tories</span></a><br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/GE" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>GE</span></a><br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/SplitOppositionVote" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>SplitOppositionVote</span></a><br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/LibDems" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LibDems</span></a><br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/Starmer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Starmer</span></a> <br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/Pincher" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Pincher</span></a><br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/ByElection" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ByElection</span></a> <br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/Tamworth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Tamworth</span></a> <br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/Greens" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Greens</span></a><br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/ElectoralCalculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ElectoralCalculus</span></a><br><a href="https://leftist.network/tags/RedWall" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>RedWall</span></a></p>
Dr Aaron McMenamin :verified:<p>UK General Election Prediction.<br>January 2023 “poll of polls” from <a href="https://med-mastodon.com/tags/ElectoralCalculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ElectoralCalculus</span></a> 🔗⬇️ 1/2</p>
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