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#Seimas

1 post1 participant0 posts today
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Richard Martin-Nielsen

#Lithuania's #VyriausiojiRinkimųKomisija has put more detailed results of this year's #Seimas #ParliamentaryElections up on their rinkejopuslapis.lt website (as in the past, I don't want to hammer their servers with Mastodon preview love, so cut and paste that address into your address bar and see what you get).
2.3mb of detailed data on district-by-district results for the first round, and 445kb of the same for the second round.
Now to look at where the votes moved. #rinkimai2024

Continued thread
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Richard Martin-Nielsen

Here are details of my prediction for today's #Lithuania's #Seimas election.
I've used the same approach and model (and a lot of the same code) that I did in 2020.
None of the code, the website coding, or the text is very clean, but I'm tired and going to bed.
It may not have been a good idea to try doing my first #Quarto project with something that has a deadline - #ElectionPredictions are more interesting before the elections.
#rinkimai2024 #rstats #dataviz
projects.martin-nielsen.ca/One

projects.martin-nielsen.caOne-Forty-One 2024: Lithuanian Parliament Predictions
Public
Richard Martin-Nielsen

I have a prediction to share.

Typically, having worked on it for hours I am having trouble putting my narrative description up online, but the image gives a summary, and the table is below.

Party First Round Seats Expected First Round Winners Second Round Seats (rounded) Total
LSDP 20 2 19 41
TS-LKD 18 3 19 40
PPNA 15 0 6 21
DSVL 8 0 3 11
LVŽS 6 0 5 11
LS 8 0 1 9
Independent 1 0 3 4
LLRA 2 0 1 3
Laisvės partija 0 0 1 1
#ElectionPredictions #rinkimai2024 #Seimas #Lithuania #rstats #DataViz

Horseshoe diagram of seats in the Lithuanian Seimas in an expected outcome of the 2024 Seimas Elections, based on a probabilistic simulation using past party results. Results are given in table form below. Simulation by Richard Martin-Nielsen based on published first-round results for 2024 and published historical data for elections in 2012, 2016 and 2024. Party (Lithuanian) Party First Round Seats Expected First Round Winners Second Round Seats (expected) Second Round Seats (rounded) Total LSDP LSDP 20 2 18.52 19 41 TS-LKD TS-LKD 18 3 19.27 19 40 PPNA PPNA 15 0 5.89 6 21 DSVL DSVL 8 0 3.05 3 11 LVŽS LVŽS 6 0 4.80 5 11 LS LS 8 0 1.28 1 9 Independent Independent 1 0 2.92 3 4 LLRA LLRA 2 0 1.03 1 3 Laisvės partija LP 0 0 0.79 1 1
Public
Gytis Repečka

Lietuvoje - įprastas politinis ciklas: po krizių valdymo ir šiokio tokio augimo prie konservatorių (TS-LKD), naujam Seimo sezonui tauta pasirenka brazauskininkus (LSDP), kurie, tradiciškai, taškys išmokas ir pataikaus liaudžiai :blinkeviciute: Sugadinę visą ankstesnį progresą, kitai kadencijai žmones paskatins rinktis visiškus populistus. O po jų - vėl krizės ir konservatoriai. Ir vėl iš naujo - visada taip :this_is_fine:

#aktualijos #rinkimai #rinkimai2024 #seimas #politika :vytis:

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