So to introduce myself here on @mstdn and the network: I am an Earth system scientist interested in what the hell is going on on this planet - in view of common history, the history of humans as a species, and Earth's history. I write about the Anthropocene, politics, the biosphere, the essential value of culture and of the arts.
Lead of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute für Climate Impact Research in Germany, Professor of Sustainability Science at Humboldt University in Berlin and advisor to the German government on environmental policy - but here private: my own opinions & views only.
Should I parallel here what I (for now, still) do on twitter for 5600 followers and sometimes ten thousands of impressions? The much better concept is here in the fediverse.
Excellent thread on how to read and discuss CDR (carbon dioxide removal): it makes sense only with deep mitigation. I completely agree. 👇
Advocates for Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) have become good at stating that CDR is not a substitute for mitigation.
I would argue the issue is different. CDR is pointless* unless there is rapid mitigation, & this makes justifying investing in CDR much harder.
Discussions were lively, the minister and his staff well-informed. They did not doubt the importance of the CO2 budget approach. But they saw serious political difficulties with it at various levels. Brbg has high and stagnant emissions - a huge challenge.
This is part of the former monastery of Lehnin, SW of Berlin, from where that while region was "colonised", as the wording goes: i.e. made German, in the late 12th c., introducing concepts with Mediterranean origins to a region that was fully Slavic, agricultural, self-conscious for many centuries prior. Just adjacent the German Council on the Environment now held a 2-day working retreat this Thu+Fri, with wide-ranging discussions and planning of upcoming reports. It was very productive and the mood excellent (though not about the slow, lagging pace of transformation - this government just can't waste its term, time's ticking).
Required reading! 👇I agree with most of what this article says on the IPCC scenarios and climate economic modeling, and it is important to understand (click through Kevin's comment to get to the source)
A really important piece drawing attention to the deep & systemic biases in the scenarios & framing of Working Group 3 of the IPCC. There are a lot of lessons and good guidance in this uncomfortable read. To me at …
Note: CDR as seen by IAMs is a function of their assumptions on costs, technology dynamics under economic optimization over decades etc.; + model selection has sampling biases, modelled CDR categories are incomplete, and often not additive; IMPs have storylines & much lower CDR.
The number of people admitted to hospital is rising again here in Germany, steeply. Let's just accept that people can't be bothered with masks or precautions while politicians are actively opposed to doing anything ...?
(Left: admissions; right: staff missing work)
Könnte sich dieser Trend bitte einfach nicht weiter bestätigen? Bitte!
If you speak German and wouldn't mind an understandable explanation of how the German CO2 budget works (and why we computed it the way we did): This is a very well done podcast by @Sanne_Schwarz and @kir__sa explaining it all (downloadable): https://klimaupdate.podigee.io/83-co2-budget-klimagipfel-bonn-globale-energiewende
3.1 GtCO2 remain at most of 🇩🇪's ceiling for limiting heating to 1.5, 6.1 GtCO2 to 1.75 degC.
Short radio report on our @Umweltrat CO2 budget report that ran on several German radio stations:
And a separate report on NDR radio:
"We'll make 1.5 degrees only with slamming the brakes"
Here's a link to my interview of yesterday in ZEIT by @elena_erdmann that is not behind a paywall (sorry, in German only) on our @Umweltrat report on the rapidly dwindling German and EU carbon budget.
Good thread 👇 commenting on carbon budgets, climate paths and our study released today (German government's Advisory Council on the Environment, http://umweltrat.de).
there is a jaw-droppingly big gap between when rich countries plan to stop heating the planet and when they would have to if they were to burn a fair share of the remaining carbon budget without relying on dodgy tech to suck vast amounts of gas back …
And again the link to our full text: